Thai HIV Vaccine Trial Results are Mixed at Best

The huge NIH/Army HIV vaccine trial using the combination of two previously failed vaccines reported its results last week. The findings were in some ways very encouraging - there was a 1/3 reduction in new HIV cases in the group that received the vaccine when compared to the group that didn't. That said, the numbers were very very small with a three year incidence of 0.925% in the control group versus 0.6375% in the group that received the vaccine. With such small numbers, as some critics have pointed out, a tiny amount of statistical fling could have easily made this trial a total waste of $105 million of US taxpayers money. Not to mention, in terms of biology, there was no difference in terms of viral load in the two groups (suggesting that the vaccine didn't really boost immunity in any significant way). Finally, most vaccines result in at least an 80% reduction in incidence before people will spread them widely.

I wonder why they would have even done this trial in the first place. That is, who would have even thought this could have worked? Granted, the two vaccines were working in different ways, but to invest such huge sums of money when there was little likelihood of a real impact seems very short sighted. I suppose the international community so hungry for a breakthrough therapy for HIV, they'll pretty much fund anything...